Unfortunately, every four years brings a very unpleasant after-New Year’s present, the Party Primaries. This year it is the Republican primaries. The Primaries often have a way of overshadowing everything else that happens before and after Christmas. This year’s fight is no different from those of the past. It is a time of year that most people endure rather than actually take an interest in. Who can blame them? For the most part, it resembles an all out brawl but without any real physical confrontation.
Between the negative attack ads, the annoying “you should vote for my guy” phone calls, and the endless news coverage, it can get overwhelming. Sometimes, the most important things, their stance on the issues, get lost in all of the noise.
So this year, it is Mitt Romney versus Newt Gingrich. But let’s not forget the ever present Ron Paul who still has some very strong supporters. While there are others such as Michele Bachmann, they really are only strong in their respective states.
At this point, you really can’t tell who is really in the lead. The polls are all varying on who is going to get the most votes. However, it appears that Mitt Romney does have a significant advantage to win the Republican primary. Yet, he might not win the first battle.
The winner of the first primary of the New Year will have to overcome the weather. Yes, you read that right. The weather can change who wins. The main reason is that no one really wants to go out when there is a bunch of snow and ice on the road and a storm coming in. Thus, the people who vote are the ones who will brave such conditions to do so. This means that an unexpected win can come out of left field.
But winning the first primary is only one battle of many coming up. It is in the battles ahead where Romney actually has some significant advantage over the others. Newt Gingrich has failed to register in some of the states. A big one that he missed was the filing deadline in Florida.
Florida is a key state to win for both sides. It has a huge number of electoral votes. If the Republicans can gain Florida this election cycle, then they have a real shot at the Presidency. But without Florida and a few other states, it is quite unlikely that Gingrich can come out as the Republican candidate. He would almost have to win every other state he is registered in by a decided margin.
Ron Paul will also have some influence in the outcome. In his case, it is more likely he would cause what is called a split vote. A split vote means that neither prominent candidate will have a decided advantage in the race. Instead, Ron Paul will draw away votes from the other candidates for himself. This doesn’t mean that he will win, but it will make some of the races very close.
While Republicans might not be that eager to embrace Mitt Romney as their candidate, it does appear that he has the campaign machine in place to pull out a win. Of course, this is no guarantee that he will win.
Another cycle of Primaries is about to begin and with it endless ads, annoying candidate phone calls, and non-stop news coverage. So, enjoy New Year’s while you can because things are about to get ugly.
